New paper: “Your Health vs. My Liberty”

How might messaging, reasoning, and philosophical beliefs predict people’s responses to pandemics? Michał Białek and I started wondering about this a few months ago. So we ran some experiments to find out. Our pre-registered hypothesis was wrong, but the other findings were really interesting. Before I get to the findings, consider making some predictions: ask yourself how you expect the following variables to correlate with compliance (or non-compliance) with public health officials’ recommendations such as mask-wearing and sheltering in place:

  • Flatten the curve graphs: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Reflective reasoning: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Mathematical competence: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Economic conservatism: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Social conservatism: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Libertarianism: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Effective altruism: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Utilitarian sacrificial harm: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Belief in God: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Religiosity: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Compatibism about free will: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Identifying as White: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
  • Identifying as a man: Related to compliance? More or less compliance?
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The Base Rate Fallacy

Who is more likely to be killed by a police officer in the United States: a white person or a black person? You might think, “Police kill more white people than black people in the US. So it’s the white person.” That answer contains a fallacy: the base rate fallacy. This post explains the fallacy, provides some examples, and suggests how to avoid it.

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